Friday, May 7, 2010

Foreign Relations


1.     Britain
a.     Following a brief honeymoon after the fall of communism in 1989, political relations between the United Kingdom and Russia have been strained.  Recently, relations between the two countries have worsened due to the assassination of Alexander Litvinenko in 2006.  Litvinenko was a former member of the KGB, who moved to England and became a journalist and critic of Putin.  He was allegedly poisoned by Russian agents on British soil. Relations between Russia and Britain have been increasingly sour due to Russia’s refusal to cooperate with the UK’s investigation.  Also, Britain has a large and very wealthy Russian expatriate community, the majority of whom are anti-Putin.  However, UK-Russia economic relations are fairly strong. The UK is one of Russia’s largest European investors, and the UK is Russia’s 12th biggest export market.  Total trade was about $17 billion in 2007.  Russian UK relations are also strained over conflicts regarding NATO and the admission of former Soviet Bloc countries (e.g, Poland and the Czech Republic) and the potential admission of the former Soviet republic of Georgia. 
2.     China
a.     During the Cold War period the USSR and China were generally antagonistic; however, since the fall of the Soviet Union, Sino-Russian relations have been generally friendly bordering on an alliance.  This is primarily due to mutual economic interest.  China is Russia’s second biggest trading partner with exports and imports totaling 40 billion euro in 2008.  The most important recent political development in the relations between the two countries is the 2001 “Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation Between the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation.”  The pact guarantees non-aggression, the sale of Russian technology and supplies to China, and the possibility of the construction of a “Trans-Siberian” oil pipeline connecting the two countries.  These economic and political developments have strengthened the economies of both countries and have led to increased cooperation between the two superpowers.  However, their alliance has given the two countries an adversarial role against the United States and EU in the UN Security Council, causing tension between Russia and China and the Western powers. 
3.     Egypt
a.     During the Gamal Abdel Nasser regime, the Soviet Union and Egypt were strong allies.  However, during the reign of Anwar El Sadat and continuing into the current presidency of Hosni Mubarak, Egyptian-Russian relations have either been unfriendly or indifferent, as Egypt became an increasingly fierce ally of the United States.  There was a state visit to Russia by Mubarak in 2008 aimed at strengthening economic ties, but relations have remained stagnant
4.     France & Germany (Major EU Powers)
a.     Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, Franco-Russian and German-Russian relations have been cautiously friendly, based on economic trade among the countries.  The EU is Russia’s number one trading partner with over €250 billion a year, with Germany and France accounting for almost half this trade. Russia’s primary export to these countries is natural gas, and it provides the largest amount of natural gas to the EU.  Germany gets almost 40% of its natural gas from Russia, and France almost 20%.  However, this importation has led to issues between the EU and Russia. In January 2009, Russian gas megacorp Gazprom cut off all shipments of gas to the EU because of a dispute with Ukraine.  This left many European countries struggling to find an alternative source of heating fuel.  The EU’s dependence on Russian gas has given Russia a substantial bargaining chip.  This political leverage could potentially assist Russia in their conflicts regarding NATO (discussed earlier), and will certainly aid Russia in future negotiations with the major EU powers.   
5.     Iran
a.     Although post-Soviet Russian-Iranian foreign relations have been friendly, recently there has been some tension and ambiguity concerning the issue of nuclear proliferation.  Since the late 1990s, Russia has been constructing the Bushehr Nuclear Plant for Iran.  However the plant has remained uncompleted to this day despite Iran’s repeated demands for completion.  Russia has adamantly opposed the development of Iranian nuclear weapons for fear that it would lead to a nuclear arms race throughout the Middle East, and supported multiple rounds of UN sanctions under US President Bush.  However, Russia views its actions in complete accordance with the IAEA Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which promotes civilian use of nuclear technology but prohibits military use.  Russia was Iran’s 7th largest trading partner and both countries are large exporters of natural gas and cooperate on energy issues.  But, as the Russian economy grows closer to the EU and the West, relations with Iran may suffer.
6.     Israel
a.     Today, Israeli-Russian relations are steadily improving.  During the early Soviet Period, USSR-Israeli relations were strong.  The Soviet Union was one of the first major nations to recognize Israel as a legitimate state, and provided the fledgling Jewish state with arms.  Later in the Cold War, issues arose due to Russian arm sales to neighboring Arab states and its support for the PLO.  Today, Israel fears that advanced Russian weapons will be sold to Syria.  In addition, Israel fears that Russian sales of civilian nuclear technology to Iran could potentially result in the acquisition of nuclear weapons by Iran.  A large number of wealthy and influential Russian Jews currently reside in Israel.  Relations are improving as Russia seeks stronger trade with Israel through the connection of over 1 million Russian émigrés. 
7.     Pakistan
a.     During the Soviet period and continuing into the current government, Russia and Pakistan have been enemies.  This is primarily due to strong Russian relations with Pakistan’s enemy India.  In addition, Pakistani support for Mujahideen rebels fighting against the Soviet Union during the invasion of Afghanistan caused a rift between the two countries.  In a recent statement, PM Putin reiterated Russian opposition to developing ties with Pakistan.
8.     Saudi Arabia
a.     Russian-Saudi relations are stagnant.  Although Russia and Saudi Arabia were historic enemies due to Saudi Arabia’s support for Afghanistan against Russia, they have recently had negotiations regarding their respective and vast oil supplies and arms trade between the two countries, but nothing concrete has emerged
9.     Syria
a.     During the Soviet era, Syria was an ally of the USSR. The Soviet Union provided Syria with military technology.  To this day Syria remains friendly with Russia, which continues to supply Syria with missiles and other weapons. Recently, Russia reestablished a military base in Syria. However, the Russian government has come under fire from the Israeli government for their weapon sales to Syria.  Israel has asked Russia to cease the sale of SAMs to the Syrians for fear that they would fall into the hands of terrorist groups seeking to destroy the Jewish state.  Russia’s increasingly close economic ties with Israel may become a factor in Russian-Syria relations. 
10.  Turkey
a.     Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russian-Turkish relations have been relatively friendly.  There have been some disputes in the Caucus regions where they share a common border and mutual interests.  Russia has been supportive of Armenian claims against Turkey for genocide 
11.  United States
a.     Current US-Russian relations, although dramatically improved, are still tepid at best.  Although currently on friendly terms, the history and relations of Russia and the United States are filled with mutual enmity primarily stemming from emergence of the Soviet Union and its aggression towards the West.  After the end of WWII, the USSR and the United States emerged as the two dominant superpowers.  They both held seats on the UN Security Council, and were at odds due to the fundamental ideological conflict between communism and capitalism/democracy.  Throughout the 20th c. a “Cold War” was fought between the two countries.  Both countries stock-piled huge numbers of nuclear weapons and fought a series of proxy wars around the world in the name of their respective ideologies.  However in 1989, the Soviet Union proved that it was economically unable to sustain itself and collapsed, breaking off into 15 smaller states, the largest of which is the modern day country of Russia.  Under the presidency of Boris Yeltsin, the country began to make strides towards democracy and capitalism.  However, charges of authoritarianism, corruption, and economic failure have plagued the presidencies of Vladimir Putin and Dmitri Medvedev. Russia continues to play an antagonistic role against the US in the Security Council, and has been harshly critical of the US’s unilateral actions in the Middle East.  The US has in turn condemned Russian military action in Georgia, and relations between President Bush and President Putin were often extremely tense.  However since the inauguration of President Obama, relations have improved considerably.  The recently signed New START nuclear arms reduction treaty (following in a long line SALT arms limitation treaties) has been viewed as an important step toward improving US-Russian foreign relations.  The current issue of sanctions on Iran will test of the new Medvedev-Obama relationship.

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